3/19/2024 0 Comments Nytimes election forecast![]() “Through his big tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era. 7: The White House has made major changes to national policy. growth in 2020 that the key has turned false.” No. “The pandemic has caused such negative G.D.P. False.” Six: Long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been as good as the past two terms. “The pandemic has pushed the economy into recession. “Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race.” This is looking pretty good for Trump so far. “Doesn’t look like he’s stepping down, so true.” Four: There is no third-party challenger. The sitting president is running for re-election. “No Republicans challenged Trump for his renomination. 2: There is no primary contest for the White House party. 1: The White House party gained House seats between midterm elections. If six or more of the keys are false, you get a political earthquake.” OK, No. What do Allan’s 13 keys predict for 2020? “And remember, an answer of ‘true’ always favors the re-election of the White House party. And the toughest thing in being a forecaster is to keep your own politics out of it.” But that’s enough history, professor. When I first developed the system in ‘81, you had to go all the way back to 1888 to find a divergence between the popular vote and the Electoral College vote.” So Allan eventually started calling the winner, not just the popular vote, which was useful 16 years later when, well, you know. I correctly predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote. ![]() Again in ‘92, ‘96 and in 2000, when he called it for Al Gore? Hey, Allan. In 1988, calling it in spring when Bush was trailing Dukakis. First in 1984, calling it two years early before anyone even knew who Reagan’s contender would be. Allan has used the keys to accurately predict every election. Only two of which have anything to do with the traits of the candidates. “We looked at every presidential election from 1860 to 1980.” What they found were 13 keys. And earthquake, the White House party is turned out of power.” So they got to work. “We recast American presidential elections as stability, the party holding the White House keeps the White House. “This point, I thought the guy was either nuts or KGB.” He wasn’t. He was a leading expert in predicting earthquakes. Vladimir turned to me and said, we are going to collaborate.” By the way, Vladimir wasn’t a historian or a politician. He calls it “The Keys to the White House.” And like some other politics these days, there’s a Russian involved. None of this in the end has any impact whatsoever on the outcome of a presidential election.” So Allan Lichtman designed a better system to predict presidential winners. ![]() Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country.” So polls are worthless? “They are snapshots in time. But history tells us voters are not fooled by the tricks of the campaign. “The pollsters and the pundits cover elections as though they were horse races. Allan Lichtman is certain we’ve been thinking about elections all wrong. In his big Sharpie letters.” Now Allan’s ready to tell us who will win in 2020. He’s accurately predicted them for four decades. We’re here because “Allan Lichtman” “Allan Lichtman” “Allan Lichtman” is the Nostradamus of presidential elections. Won four cars.” But we’re not here to talk about any of that. “It’s a race designed for horses but run by people.” “Tic-Tac-Dough.” And a former quiz show winner. He’s taught history at American University for almost 50 years. But Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the future. Transcript He Predicted Trump’s Win in 2016.
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